当星巴克在全球市场中遭遇一系列的黑天鹅事件时，国内两个年轻的咖啡品牌——Luckin Coffee（瑞幸咖啡）和Coffee Box（连咖啡），简称LB，正quietly expanding their presence in the online coffee market. Luckin, backed by a 10 billion yuan investment, has opened over 525 stores across 13 cities since January this year, with an estimated daily sales volume of around 127 cups per store. Although the brand's customer retention rate is relatively low at about two orders per user, it has managed to attract over 130 thousand registered users.

Compared to Starbucks' average daily sales volume of around 390 cups per store, LB's performance seems promising. However, when considering economies of scale and profit margins, it becomes apparent that LB still faces significant challenges. For instance, if we assume that LB operates without promotional activities like free drinks for first-time customers and referrals rewards for existing customers (which account for approximately 95% and 10% of total orders respectively), its actual sales would be closer to around 364 million cups annually.

This translates into a significantly lower net profit margin compared to Starbucks', which could potentially impact the sustainability of their business model. Nevertheless, with rapid expansion as their primary strategy to secure funding before facing potential regulatory constraints on new store openings—similar to those faced by shared bike companies like Ofo—LB continues to expand aggressively.

For Coffee Box—a fellow player in the online coffee market—the emergence of Luckin presents a unique opportunity for growth through partnership rather than direct competition. This cooperation allows both brands to maintain high profit margins while leveraging each other's strengths in marketing and customer acquisition.

The future outlook for these two brands depends on various factors including market size estimation (how large is the external catering coffee market?), product differentiation (can they sustain high profitability despite lacking traditional cafe experiences?), and barriers-to-entry analysis (what prevents others from replicating their success?).

In conclusion, using Porter’s Five Forces framework as an analytical tool reveals several areas where LB lags behind established players like Starbucks: core competencies in research & development and supply chain management; negotiation power vis-a-vis suppliers; particularly third-party delivery services which pose significant risks due to data privacy concerns; entry barriers related to app-based vs micro-program platforms; advertising costs; operational expenses such as fixed assets investments in new locations; client subsidies etc., all contribute towards making it difficult for them compete effectively against established competitors within the industry landscape currently dominated by giants such as Starbucks et al., who have built strong foundations through years-long strategic planning efforts undertaken during pre-Internet era times when digital marketing tools weren't yet available or affordable enough so far!