咖啡金融网（www.coffinance.com）消息，近期美国ICE交易所阿拉比卡咖啡期货价格的持续上涨引发了市场极度关注，甚至美国一咖啡专家在网上发起“猜测未来6个月咖啡价格会涨到多少？”的投票，一时之间引来众多行业内外人士投票。

该咖啡专家表示，近期有很多人都来咨询她咖啡价格到底会涨到多高，她认为这可能要取决于基本面因素，尤其是当满足买入合约和增加卖出合约的因素出现。并且举例了过去几次历史性上涨行情最终停止的原因，分别是：

1985年巴西干旱：政府抛售大量咖啡库存。

1994年巴西霜冻：消费者库存充裕，同时及时释放库存。

1997年交易所认证咖啡库存减少：增加罗布斯塔认证库存填补。

2010年哥伦比亚大幅减产：通过升贴水来调节需求。

2021年巴西干旱以及全球咖啡消费需求复苏：最终什么来终止上涨行情？

该咖啡专家为此还发起截止今年底咖啡价格会上涨到哪里的投票，其中49%的人认为在150-199美分之间，具体投票结果参见下表：

在投票下方，我们还看到了一些优质观点评论：

评论1：

In my vision, we have (now in May) a shortage of coffee in the Brazilian market. Due to the smaller harvest this year, what’s happening now will happen sooner in 2022, probably between january and february. Due to this gap between the low supply and the beginning of the 2022 harvest, I believe that prices should rise in this period ($ 2.00-2.49). If there is any climatic factor that indicates a break in the 2023 harvest, we will see prices $ 3.01 +.

评论2：

I wonder how coffee stocks at both exporting and importing countries will play a role in determining prices in the next 6 months despite any increase in demand and low coffee yield in major producing countries.

评论3：

This feels like 2011. Speculation has been driving the market. The conversation about Brazil’s real volume is adding more questions than answers. More speculation. Now roasters starting to worry. They’re taking some cover. Soon theyll aggressively cover. Then the two sides will trigger one another for the next run.

IMO, If we have real weather issues, this could get us to $2.50+. Otherwise, I’m assuming about $1.80 for things to settle down. Unlike most roasters, seeing this makes me happy.

关键词：咖啡期货，咖啡价格

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